Quarterback is the hardest position to judge. So much more goes into playing the position in the NFL than you can tell from your Television or Computer. It is the most over drafted position in the draft almost every year and it has a very high bust rate. Teams are always desperate for QB’s and this year may be no different. As many as 6 teams picking in the top 10 could use a QB, there is always pressure for those teams to address that need in the draft. It may not be wise for these teams to try to address that need early in the 1st Round. Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles are legitimate 1st Round prospects. There is an impressive list of QB prospects that should probably go in the 2nd Round or later. This could be a great QB class. However it wouldn’t be surprising to see a lot of these guys drafted too high, forced to play too soon and turn into busts.
1. Jonnny Manziel – 6’0’’ 207 lbs 4.68 40 – Texas A&M – 6.4- There isn’t anything we can tell you about Johnny Football that you can’t read anywhere else. There are 2 schools of thought on J-Football. Most scouts either love him or hate him. We’re a little more in the middle than most on Manziel but we are pro Johnny for the most part. He shows the ability to throw from the pocket and has the arm to make all the necessary throws in the NFL. There is no doubt that Manziel is a special football player. The questions will be is he big enough and can he stay healthy. He will need to become more like a Russell Wilson type player with mobility than the reckless Michael Vick type player he currently is. Manziel is the one QB in this draft who may be worthy of a top 10 selection.
2. Blake Bortles – 6’5’’ 232 lbs 4.93 40 – Central Florida – 6.1 – Bortles is another highly touted QB that has had plenty of coverage. A lot of scouts think Bortles is the #1 QB in this draft and he was #1 overall on a lot of early mock drafts. Blake has the highest upside of any QB in this class and will likely face early expectations. Those expectations may not be fair. He isn’t the most polished prospect and doesn’t have a perfect delivery. Tends to have a bit of a hitch in his giddy up and throws off his back foot. Doesn’t have great arm strength. Has prototypical size and great mobility. On paper Bortles is the prototypical QB prospect. He will be a solid 1st Round pick but there is high bust potential if he goes to a bad team that plays him right away.
3. David Carr – 6’2’’ 214 lbs 4.69 40 – Fresno State- 5.9 – Carr has all the tools. He has a strong arm, good mechanics and quick feet. He probably looked better in workouts than any QB prospect. I saw too many bad throws on tape for a guy with these characteristics. Threw a lot of short passes and played in a Conference that didn’t play much defense. Carr will come off as a polished product but playing in the NFL will be a big adjustment for him. He can make all the throws but needs to be more consistent. Especially when throwing down field. Carr will get a chance to start and it will most likely be very early in his career. If a team picks him in the top 10 and thinks he’s their franchise player, I think they will be sorry. If he goes to a team that can let him grow they may just get a franchise player.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo – 6’2’’ 226 lbs 4.97 40 – Eastern Illinois – 5.8 – Small Conference QB’s like Garoppolo are a mixed bag in the NFL. Then again so are QB’s in general. This may benefit Jimmy. There won’t be the same immediate expectations on him as some of his peers. It’s important for a QB to be able to develop and Garoppolo may be given that luxury. He has the quickest release in the draft and looks like the most game ready QB on film. That may be a bit of fool’s gold as he did play in a smaller conference. Garoppolo has some work to do. He mostly played in the shotgun in college and tends to throw a little side arm. However Jimmy has the arm and brain talent to be a starter in the NFL if he’s given the time to develop.
5. Teddy Bridgewater – 6’2’’ 214 lbs 4.79e 40 – Louisville –5.7- The Draft’s most polished QB also has some limitations. On tape you notice Teddy’s feet and accuracy but you also notice he often short arms the ball and doesn't have great arm strength. Does not look big enough to take the pounding he would on a bad team. Has small hands 9 ¼ ‘’. Early on in the process Bridgewater was thought very highly of and you saw him at the top of most mock drafts. His stock seems to have dropped quite a bit with some mock drafts having him slipping into the 2nd Round. It makes sense that his stock is falling, his limitations are very hard to overcome. It wouldn't shock me to see a team fall in love with him and take him way too high but in the right system he has a chance to be good.
6. Tom Savage – 6’4’’ 228 lbs 4.97 40 – Pittsburgh – 5.65 – Savage bounced around a lot in College and had an inconsistent career. His only seasons as a full time starter were 2009 and 2013. Had a solid Sr. season at Pitt. Savage looks great throwing the ball. He has a strong arm and a quick release. Savage also makes a lot of bad throws. He throws into coverage or when he is getting hit too often. As a prospect the positives far outweigh the negatives. He has the things you can’t teach. He has the work ethic and intelligence to correct his mistakes. It makes sense that he struggled against better teams this season. He simply hasn't played enough football. Give this guy time to develop and you may have something. Savage isn’t a big name prospect but he has been moving up draft boards. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him go in the 2nd Round. If he slips into the mid rounds he’s a real sleeper.
7. Zach Mettenberger – 6’5’’ 224 lbs 5.18e 40 – LSU – 5.6 – Mettenberger may be the most natural pocket passer in the draft. He shows very good arm strength when he has time and really steps into his throw. He is coming off a torn ACL and that certainly factors into his grade. He won’t be healthy for the draft and will most likely miss the season. He is a developmental prospect anyway so sitting out a year could benefit him in some ways. Someone will draft him it’s just a matter of how high someone is willing to take the risk. There are plenty of negatives about Mettenberger other than his injury. He may have character issues. On the field he isn’t an accurate passer and has a long delivery. He doesn’t look comfortable when the pocket breaks down despite his size. Mettenberger is an intriguing prospect for a pro-style vertical passing team. He could be a find in mid to late rounds.
8. AJ McCarron – 6’3’’ 220 lbs 4.94 40 – Alabama – 5.45 – AJ tries to compare himself to Tom Brady. That rubs me the wrong way. Not only will there most likely never be a 6th Round QB as good as Brady but AJ is far from a 6th Round prospect. The most recognizable traits about McCarron as it relates to the NFL are that he throws off his back foot a lot and doesn’t have a great arm. He always had great players around him and has always been on the better team. It will be interesting to see how he translates to the NFL. That’s not to say he won’t make it. He is a great leader, has had great coaching and has played in tons of big games. He also has just enough ability to get the job done, like say…Tom Brady. I think McCarron set the bar high for himself. He probably won’t live up to his own hype and will probably never be a QB a team builds around but he should have a solid career and will probably start at some point.
9. Logan Thomas – 6’6’’ 248 lbs 4.61 40 – Virginia Tech – 5.4 – Prototypical size and arm strength. Great mobility. That begs the question, why isn’t he rated higher? Frankly he wasn’t a very good QB in College. He had his best season his Sophomore year. It’s troubling to see such a talented athlete make so little progress and actually regress. Logan can make all the throws and could have the strongest arm of any QB in this draft. He looks very accurate at times but is incredibly inconsistent with his ball placement. Thomas is a developmental prospect who should be picked in the middle rounds. It wouldn’t shock me to see him become one of the biggest steals in this draft but if he doesn’t you probably won’t hear about him much.
10. Stephen Morris – 6’2’’ 213 lbs 4.63 40 – Miami – 5.3 – Morris has great arm strength and athleticism. He lacks ideal size and is an inaccurate passer. That about sums him up. He had 3 Offensive Coordinators in College and that could have stunted his growth. There is a lot to like about him as a prospect. He can overcome his lack of size with his quick release and footwork. His accuracy should improve over time. Morris will most likely be a backup in the NFL but is an intriguing developmental prospect that could be a steal in the late rounds.
11. Aaron Murray – 6’1’’ 207 lbs 4.84e 40 – Georgia – 5.2 – Great College player who is recovering from a torn ACL. Murray is one the most prolific College Football players of all time holding the All-Time SEC records for Passing Yards and TD’s. While that is impressive and he can definitely throw the football, his skill set is suited for the college game. Doesn’t have the size to hold up in the NFL and coming into the league injured doesn’t help his cause. Murray should be a solid back up in the NFL but shouldn’t go any higher than the 4th Round.
12. Taj Boyd – 6’1’’ 222 lbs 4.84 40 – 5.15 - Clemson – Strong armed QB who didn’t play in a pro-style offense in College. Boyd’s #’s are inflated from playing with Sammy Watkins. Martavis Bryant isn’t exactly chopped liver either. Boyd has some upside in the NFL. He has decent mechanics and the arm strength to make it at the next level. Doesn’t have the accuracy you would like. Boyd isn’t a top prospect and will probably be available late. He throws the ball well enough right now to play in the NFL. He doesn’t seem to have the ceiling that most of the prospects in this class do.
13. David Fales – 6’2’’ 212 lbs 4.99 40 – 5.05 – San Jose State – Fales played in a wide open offense and put up very impressive stats in college. He has very good accuracy and a good delivery. He lacks arm strength and isn’t as accurate when throwing deep. Fales doesn’t appear to have an NFL arm but he throws a nice ball and could have enough arm in the right offense. He is an intriguing prospect for teams that run a west coast offense and should be drafted late.
14. Jeff Matthews – 6’4’’ 223 lbs 5.26 40 - 5.0 – Big strong armed Ivy Leaguer. Matthews set a bunch of records in college but also threw 42 INT’s including 13 his Sr. year. He isn’t mobile and that was in the Ivy League. Playing in the NFL will likely be a culture shock for him but Matthews does have some tools and should be drafted late.
15. Keith Wenning 6’3’’ 218 lbs 5.00 40 – Ball State – 4.9 – Wenning has the size and accuracy to play in the NFL. He has a below average arm. He has accuracy outside the hash marks but the ball takes too long to get there. Wenning could end up being a nice back up but doesn’t appear to be starter material.
16. Keith Price – 6’0” 196 Ilbs. 4.54 40 – Washington – 4.9 - A three year starter who does not have good size for the position but does have great speed. Russell Wilson reached out to him before the start of this season and worked with him on decision making. Price always put up good numbers and his best year was as a sophomore when no one knew who he was and he just let it fly. For some reason I think scouts are too hard on this kid wanting more from him even though he did plenty. He will be drafted and he played in the second hardest conference. Seemed like the past two seasons he was too content on making short passes when he should have been flinging it down the field. He has a decent arm but if a team works with him he can easily become a backup and perhaps surprise the NFL once he is given a chance.
17. Thomas Rees - 6’1” 214 Ilbs. 5.14 40 – Notre Dame – He is a two year starter with more starts under his belt. Last season he had over 3000 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Thomas lost the starting job as a junior and was still a fine contributor to the team and honestly without him on the bench the starter might not have been suspended last season and the team would have excused his off field issues. He is a leader and a great guy if he is not drafted he will be signed after the draft is over.
18. Bryn Renner – 6’3” 228 Ilbs. 4.87 40 - North Carolina – Renner is a three year starter who has good size and speed for the position. Over his sophomore and junior season (only two seasons he played every game injured last season) he had 54 touchdowns and 20 interceptions with over 6300 yards passing. He completed over 65% passes in each season. Renner has played in the hardest conference his whole college career and shows the ability to compete with the best. North Carolina was a worse team without him and Bryn should become a backup at some point in his career. If given the opportunity to start due to an injury he just might impress enough to earn a starting role somewhere.
19. Garrett Gilbert – 6’4” 241 Ilbs. 4.86 40 - Southern Methodist – Gilbert was the starter at Texas his sophomore year before losing the job to McCoy. He has great size and decent speed for the position. He has struggled with throwing interceptions however he was one of the most highly touted quarterbacks coming out of high school. When he went to Texas he had three different offenses each season and did not have a great team to support him. Gilbert was the successor of Vince Young which had big shoes to fill and an offense that did not support his strengths. If Garrett is given the opportunity to develop and learn an NFL west coast offense there is a chance he can develop into a starter in the NFL.
20. Seth Lobato -6’5” 230 Ilbs. 4.95 40 - Northern Colorado – Seth is a three year starter with prototypical size and decent speed for the position. Where he impresses me is in his arm strength, there is not a throw in the NFL that he cannot make. Over the past three seasons he had 8000 passing yards and 53 touchdowns but he had 34 interceptions and completed less than 60% of his passes. Lobato played in a conference where his team was usually the worst and he kept his team in most of these games. There is an outside chance due to his cannon of an arm that a team signs him after the draft and allows him to develop on their practice squad and perhaps earn his way on to a roster. For some reason I like him he has a great delivery and is able to scramble he just might have been on a very bad team and out of all teams the Patriots and Packers are looking at him as an undrafted rookie free agent.
21. Dustin Vaughn – 6’5” 235 Ilbs. 4.95 40 - Western Texas A&M – Dustin has great size and good speed for the position. His best asset is his arm which is one of the stronger ones in the draft. He has three years starting experience and should be considered as a late round draft pick. There is no reason why he cannot earn a practice squad role and may wind up on a roster after a few seasons.
